This Sunday the Hollywood Foreign Press airs their annual Golden Globes ceremony, and for your average cinephile this always proves to be an interesting night. Not only is winning a Golden Globe quite an accolade in itself, the Globes remains one of the best indicators as to whom might have the best chance at Oscar glory in the coming months. Does everyone who win the Globe go on to score an Academy Award? Certainly not. But for sure one’s chances for it are believed to increase dramatically with a victory at the Globes. And as the show is slightly less formal than the Oscars I often find it to be a more unpredictable ceremony overall, and that includes who they choose as the victors.
The following picks are my predictions for who will win and any notes on each category. While the Golden Globes encompasses TV and Film, I will be focusing exclusively on the film categories, simply because I don’t consider myself nearly as educated on the overall TV offerings as I do the cinematic ones. So without further adieu here are my predictions for the 2020 Film Golden Globes.
Best Picture-Drama
Who Will Win: “The Irishman”
Notes: While “Marriage Story” and “1917” are terrific, accomplished films in their own right and any other year would stand as top contenders, for the legendary Martin Scorsese to come roaring with a meditative mob masterpiece in the twilight of his career makes it almost impossible to see any film besting it. When you add the fact that this film has a legendary cast (DeNiro, Pacino, Pesci, etc.) all pitting in some of their best work in a decade, “The Irishman” is easily the film to beat.
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy
Who Will Win: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Notes: I still feel this is an odd choice, simply because the classification of Tarantino’s tribute to Old Hollywood as a comedy comes off as bizarre. Sure, it has a considerably high dose of comedy, but I doubt most people would classify it as such. With that said, it is still easily the best film of the nominated selections in this category. Eddie Murphy’s resurgence could push “Dolemite is My Name” to this spot as an upset, but I’d still say that is unlikely at best.
Best Actor-Drama
Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Notes: Phoenix’s astonishing performance in “Joker” is the entire reason to see the film, which is good but not great without it. Adam Driver has a lot of momentum for his terrific work in “Marriage Story” as well and would likely be the closest contender, but the obvious commitment Phoenix gave to such a haunting performance should finally score him a well-earned victory.
Best Actress-Drama
Who Will Win: Renee Zellweger, “Judy”
Notes: What an incredible comeback. Oscar winner Zellweger seemingly disappeared from mainstream film for over a decade, only to come roaring back with this engrossing biopic about the tragic final days of Judy Garland. Considering she has won just about every major award leading up to the Globes it seems a safe bet she will repeat that success here, and deservedly so.
Best Actor-Musical/Comedy
Who Will Win: Eddie Murphy, “Dolemite is My Name”
Notes: Many likely see DiCaprio winning this for his terrific work in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”, and that would be a fine choice. But Eddie Murphy’s recent return to prominence, coupled with a career-best performance as exploitation director Rudy Ray Moore, makes him a true sentimental favorite this year.
Best Actress-Musical/Comedy
Who Will Win: Awkafina, “The Farewell”
Notes: Awkafina had a breakout year with “The Farewell”. A deeply personal story of struggling with loss that served up far more laughs than that premise should, she was the heart of the picture and weaves through a complex emotional palette with subtlety and exquisite timing. I feel she’s a lock, especially with this category having the most absurd nomination all year (I love Cate Blanchett, but “Where’d You Go, Bernadette” is nothing short of dreadful).
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Notes: Some would argue both Pacino and Pesci are strong contenders for this, which is also the biggest mark against them. They are both so good in “The Irishman” that between the two, I see them easily splitting their votes (though I’d personally prefer Pesci). This has proven to be true in almost every award thus far, where Brad Pitt has emerged victorious for his work as a laid-back stuntman. I do feel while he is great in this film, this is largely a lifetime achievement award. But with as rich a body of work as Pitt, I’m not entirely opposed to that.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Notes: The favorite for many in this category is Jennifer Lopez for her turn in “Hustlers”, and it is a tough call. She’s easily the best part of a very strong film, and the fact that she scored this nomination after a succession of fairly schlocky films makes it all the more satisfying. But Laura Dern has been putting in consistently excellent performances for three decades. Her turn in “Marriage Story” as a divorce lawyer manages to be both blatantly manipulative and highly nuanced, no easy feat. The supporting categories are often seen as a way to right the wrongs of actors who have been overlooked for a career of great work, and I feel both categories will be functioning in this manner this ceremony.
Best Director
Who Will Win: Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Notes: “Parasite” was the best film of the year, and the fact it didn’t score a Best Picture nomination I consider a true oversight. They at least made right in the Director category, and Joon Ho should have the edge here. However, with Scorsese right behind him this will be a close call.
Best Screenplay
Who Will Win: “Marriage Story”
Notes: Anyone who has seen “Marriage Story” can immediately recognize how vital the stellar script of that film is to the quality of the entire film. This is a dialogue heavy film with a considerable amount of care given to how the narrative is crafted, practically catnip for this category. The film’s ability to not devolve rapidly into divorce portrayal histrionics and its patience to let the story simmer instead of immediately boil reveals top shelf writing, and it should be justly rewarded for it.
Best Original Song
Who Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”, Rocketman
Notes: The two Disney entries are weak this year, “CATS” is one of the most reviled films of the year, and “Harriet” was not seen by enough people. The only song left is a new song from Elton freaking John in a highly beloved film of his life in the year he’s launching his farewell tour. You do the math.
Best Score
Who Will Win: 1917
Notes: While Randy Newman’s work in “Marriage Story” has received high praise this year, it was actually one of my least favorite aspects of the film. Love the movie, love Newman, but at times it felt like such an odd pairing to me. On the other hand, the only thing that might be as good as the breathtaking cinematography in “1917” is the pulsating score that emphasizes the intensity of the film so well. The climactic scene of the film may have had the best visual/music pairing all year, and should be enough to secure a win.
Best Animated Film
Who Will Win: “Toy Story 4”
Notes: Pixar scoring a Globe nomination in this category has become somewhat of an annual tradition, and almost as routine is their victory in said category. In a year of relatively weak offerings in animation, the critically acclaimed fourth entry in the “Toy Story” franchise seems to have this in the bag.
Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: “Parasite”
Notes: As stated in the Best Director category, “Parasite” was the best film released this year. If there’s any one category I’d consider a lock this year, it would be this one. Bong Joon Ho’s masterful satire on class is without peer, despite some fantastic efforts like Almodovar’s “Pain and Glory” also in the mix.
All in all, it should be a good year for film at the Globes as we were blessed with some damn fine cinema in 2019. Let’s see where the last major stop to the Oscars leaves us after Sunday night is over.
